In this working paper, we adapt the Heath-Jarrow Morton (HJM) framework by considering a constraint of convergence of future forward rates toward a constant exogeneous rate set e.g. by a regulator. This limit rate, called “ultimate forward risk” or UFR, was introduced by the EIOPA in 2015 to extrapolate the initial yield curve for maturities beyond the last liquid point. We show that adding a constraint of convergence in the HJM model impacts not only the term structure of interest rates but also the future variance of zero-coupon bonds.
Sector: Insurance
Authors: Simon Boigelot &
Donatien Hainaut
Publisher: Detralytics
Date: March 2021
Language: English
Pages: 25
Reference : Detra Note 2021-1
Simon is a TCP Actuarial Consultant and Sales Lead at Detralytics. Prior to joining the company, Simon worked at Belfius Bank as a Senior Quantitative Risk Analyst. His tasks ranged from pricing of financial products to Risk Management. Before that, Simon did two internships, at WTW and Deloitte.
Donatien Hainaut est Conseiller Scientifique chez Detralytics et Professeur à l’UCLouvain (Belgique), où il dirige le Master en Data Science à orientation statistique. Auparavant, il a occupé plusieurs postes académiques, notamment en tant que Professeur Associé à la Rennes School of Business et à l’ENSAE à Paris. Il possède également une solide expérience en entreprise, ayant travaillé comme Risk Officer, Quantitative Analyst et ALM Officer.
Actuaire qualifié et titulaire d’un doctorat en Asset and Liability Management, ses recherches actuelles portent sur les mécanismes de contagion dans les processus stochastiques ainsi que sur les applications des réseaux de neurones en assurance.
