Abstract
This paper proposes a multistate model with a Semi-Markov dependence structure describing the different stages in the settlement process of individual claims in general insurance. Every trajectory, from reporting to closure is combined with a modeling of individual link ratios to obtain the ultimate cost of each claim. Quantiles and other risk measures can then easily be obtained by simulation. A case study based on individual claim developments in a motor third party liability insurance portfolio illustrates the relevance of the proposed approach.
Keywords: IBNR, RBNP, RBNS, loss development, technical provisions, solvency calculation, financial reporting.
Sector: Insurance
Expertise: Solvency calculation
Authors: Carole Bettonville,
Robin Van Oirbeek,
Michel Denuit & Julien Trufin
Publisher: Detralytics
Date: March 2020
Language: English
Pages: 29
Reference : Detra Note 2020-1
About the authors
Carole Bettonville
Carole is a Freelance Expert at Detralytics. During her various missions, Carole has worked on various fields such as calibration of lapse rate and mortality models and a project as part of the IFRS 17 framework, aiming at identifying a Best Estimate allocation key based on some claims characteristics. Prior to joining Detralytics, Carole worked as an intern at Axa Belgium.
Michel Denuit
Michel is an Honorary Scientific Advisor at Detralytics, as well as a professor in actuarial science at the Université Catholique de Louvain. He has international experience as a visiting professor, and has promoted many projects in collaboration with the industry. At Detralytics, Michel coaches young talents, provides cutting-edge training, fosters innovation and oversees R&D projects.
Julien Truffin
Julien is a Scientific Advisor at Detralytics, as well as a professor in Actuarial Science at the department of mathematics of the Université Libre de Bruxelles. Julien has experience as a consultant and a strong academic background developed at prominent institutions, including Université Laval (Canada), UCL, and ULB (Belgium). At Detralytics, Julien coaches young talents, provide cutting-edge training, fosters innovation and oversees R&D projects.
