{"id":7469,"date":"2026-06-08T09:16:28","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T09:16:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/detralytics.com\/?p=7469"},"modified":"2026-08-24T09:53:56","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T09:53:56","slug":"15-septembre-2026-lunch-learn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/detralytics.com\/fr\/training\/15-septembre-2026-lunch-learn\/","title":{"rendered":"15 septembre 2026\uff5cLunch &amp; Learn :  Mod\u00e9lisation de la mortalit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale \u00e0 l\u2019aide de B-splines p\u00e9nalis\u00e9es"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"7469\" class=\"elementor elementor-7469\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ca1e14b e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"ca1e14b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;shape_divider_bottom&quot;:&quot;tilt&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-shape elementor-shape-bottom\" aria-hidden=\"true\" data-negative=\"false\">\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 1000 100\" preserveaspectratio=\"none\">\n\t<path class=\"elementor-shape-fill\" d=\"M0,6V0h1000v100L0,6z\"\/>\n<\/svg>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dc0e204 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"dc0e204\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Lunch &amp; Learn : Mod\u00e9lisation de la mortalit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale \u00e0 l\u2019aide de B-splines p\u00e9nalis\u00e9es<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f38577c elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"f38577c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Donatien Hainaut<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-82c0ee2 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"82c0ee2\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-52db2a6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"52db2a6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7a1ef15 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"7a1ef15\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fa4d14b e-grid e-con-full e-con e-child\" data-id=\"fa4d14b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ad4628a elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"ad4628a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"#inscription\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/detralytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Assurance-Parametrique-800-x-600-px-3.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-7471\" alt=\"Lunch &amp; Learn : Mod\u00e9lisation de la mortalit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale \u00e0 l\u2019aide de B-splines p\u00e9nalis\u00e9es\" srcset=\"https:\/\/detralytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Assurance-Parametrique-800-x-600-px-3.jpg 800w, https:\/\/detralytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Assurance-Parametrique-800-x-600-px-3-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/detralytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Assurance-Parametrique-800-x-600-px-3-16x12.jpg 16w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2cb57df e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"2cb57df\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;gradient&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a95345c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"a95345c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><b>Date:<\/b> 15 septembre 2026 de 12:30 \u00e0 13:30<\/p><p><b>Lieu: <\/b>En ligne (via Teams)<\/p><p><b>Orateur:<\/b> Donatien Hainaut, Conseiller Scientifique<\/p><p><b>Langue:<\/b> Pr\u00e9sentation en fran\u00e7ais \/ Support en anglais<\/p><p><b>Accr\u00e9ditation:<\/b>\u00a01 CPD<\/p><p><b>Prix:<\/b> Gratuit<\/p><p><b>Contact : <\/b><a style=\"color: white;\" href=\"mailto:learning@detralytics.eu\">learning@detralytics.eu<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7193989 elementor-align-center elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"7193989\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/events.teams.microsoft.com\/event\/3a5bc88a-8e68-49c2-ab20-9191d8a812b0@1c0ac95e-5250-4aaf-b102-0eb91d01d0e9\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-arrow-right\" viewbox=\"0 0 448 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M190.5 66.9l22.2-22.2c9.4-9.4 24.6-9.4 33.9 0L441 239c9.4 9.4 9.4 24.6 0 33.9L246.6 467.3c-9.4 9.4-24.6 9.4-33.9 0l-22.2-22.2c-9.5-9.5-9.3-25 .4-34.3L311.4 296H24c-13.3 0-24-10.7-24-24v-32c0-13.3 10.7-24 24-24h287.4L190.9 101.2c-9.8-9.3-10-24.8-.4-34.3z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\"> Inscription Gratuite<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d6aaecf elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"d6aaecf\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><img decoding=\"async\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\ud83c\udf7d\ufe0f\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/17.0.2\/svg\/1f37d.svg\"> Participez \u00e0 notre prochain Lunch &amp; Learn, une pr\u00e9sentation gratuite de nos r\u00e9cents travaux par nos conseillers scientifiques et experts, durant votre pause d\u00e9jeuner.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f76e2de elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"f76e2de\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c47bafc elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"c47bafc\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Mod\u00e9lisation de la mortalit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale \u00e0 l\u2019aide de B-splines p\u00e9nalis\u00e9es<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f43ba6d elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f43ba6d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"page\" title=\"Page 3\"><div class=\"layoutArea\"><div class=\"column\"><div><p><b>Points cl\u00e9s abord\u00e9s :<\/b><\/p><\/div><ul><li>Difficult\u00e9s des mod\u00e8les multi-populations classiques face aux faibles effectifs r\u00e9gionaux.<\/li><li>Alternative parcimonieuse du mod\u00e8le de Li-Lee fond\u00e9e sur des B-splines p\u00e9nalis\u00e9es.<\/li><li>Estimation stable par vraisemblance de Poisson et Newton-Raphson adaptatif.<\/li><li>M\u00e9thode de projection coh\u00e9rente des facteurs de mortalit\u00e9 via SVD et marche al\u00e9atoire multivari\u00e9e.<\/li><li>Application aux r\u00e9gions fran\u00e7aises et belges, mettant en \u00e9vidence des \u00e9carts persistants de long\u00e9vit\u00e9.<\/li><li>Implications pour la tarification des rentes, la mesure du risque de long\u00e9vit\u00e9 et les exigences de solvabilit\u00e9.<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-51fbc51 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"51fbc51\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e4c9365 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"e4c9365\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Introduction<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-35d7b08 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"35d7b08\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div title=\"Page 3\"><p>Cette formation courte pr\u00e9sente le contenu de notre derni\u00e8re <a href=\"https:\/\/detralytics.com\/fr\/publication\/modeling-regional-mortality-with-penalized-b-splin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\"><b>Detra Note<\/b><\/a>, publi\u00e9e par Donatien Hainaut (Conseiller Scientifique) en collaboration avec Idrissa Belem (Consultant TAP) et Thomas Hames (Expert\/Innovation Lead).<\/p><p><span style=\"letter-spacing: 0.3px;\">Nous explorons une nouvelle approche param\u00e9trique afin de mod\u00e9liser la mortalit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale au sein des r\u00e9gions europ\u00e9ennes NUTS-2.\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"letter-spacing: 0.3px;\">Les taux de mortalit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionaux \u00e9tant nettement plus volatils que les agr\u00e9gats nationaux, nous \u00e9tendons le mod\u00e8le de Li et Lee en utilisant des B-splines p\u00e9nalis\u00e9es afin de lisser les logarithmes des taux centraux de mortalit\u00e9 ainsi que les effets marginaux sp\u00e9cifiques \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e2ge des facteurs temporels endog\u00e8nes.<\/span><\/p><div>Par rapport au cadre de Li et Lee, notre mod\u00e8le pr\u00e9sente plusieurs avantages. Premi\u00e8rement, il permet d\u2019obtenir des courbes de mortalit\u00e9 liss\u00e9es, une caract\u00e9ristique particuli\u00e8rement recherch\u00e9e dans les applications actuarielles.\u00a0<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>Deuxi\u00e8mement, la param\u00e9trisation limite les degr\u00e9s de libert\u00e9 du mod\u00e8le, ce qui permet une estimation fiable sur des fen\u00eatres temporelles plus courtes.\u00a0<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>Troisi\u00e8mement, le mod\u00e8le est suffisamment robuste pour la pr\u00e9vision de la mortalit\u00e9 \u00e0 long terme ainsi que pour la valorisation des rentes. Les param\u00e8tres du mod\u00e8le sont estim\u00e9s par maximisation de la log-vraisemblance, et la m\u00e9thodologie est appliqu\u00e9e aux donn\u00e9es de mortalit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionales fran\u00e7aises et belges.<\/div><div>\u00a0<\/div><div>Un package Python d\u00e9di\u00e9, a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 dans le cadre de cette analyse et est librement accessible sur <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/detralytics\/morta_nuts2\">GitHub<\/a>. Cette librairie de fonctions, via une API collectant les donn\u00e9es Eurostat, permet la construction de tables de mortalit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionales pour une grande partie de l\u2019Europe.<\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d6f63e1 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"d6f63e1\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2765310 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"2765310\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-88cde8e elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"88cde8e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\u00c0 propos des orateurs<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fa01dc3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"fa01dc3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Donatien Hainaut, Conseiller Scientifique<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-78ec588 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"78ec588\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-ae5c48d82f22f2e0c01ebb851eee595b\">Donatien Hainaut est Conseiller Scientifique chez Detralytics et Professeur \u00e0 l\u2019UCLouvain (Belgique), o\u00f9 il dirige le Master en Data Science \u00e0 orientation statistique. Auparavant, il a occup\u00e9 plusieurs postes acad\u00e9miques, notamment en tant que Professeur Associ\u00e9 \u00e0 la Rennes School of Business et \u00e0 l\u2019ENSAE \u00e0 Paris. Il poss\u00e8de \u00e9galement une solide exp\u00e9rience en entreprise, ayant travaill\u00e9 comme Risk Officer, Quantitative Analyst et ALM Officer.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-319687f5e483df5041193c0b748e25dd\">Actuaire qualifi\u00e9 et titulaire d\u2019un doctorat en Asset and Liability Management, ses recherches actuelles portent sur les m\u00e9canismes de contagion dans les processus stochastiques ainsi que sur les applications des r\u00e9seaux de neurones en assurance.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ea45815 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"ea45815\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-65a3b55 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"65a3b55\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-437e93d elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"437e93d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pr\u00e9sentation d&#8217;une nouvelle approche param\u00e9trique afin de mod\u00e9liser la mortalit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale au sein des r\u00e9gions europ\u00e9ennes NUTS-2. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7471,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[143],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7469","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-training"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>15 septembre 2026\uff5cLunch &amp; 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