{"id":7368,"date":"2026-05-20T12:58:11","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T12:58:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/detralytics.com\/?p=7368"},"modified":"2026-06-22T14:22:14","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T14:22:14","slug":"modeling-regional-mortality-with-penalized-b-splin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/detralytics.com\/fr\/publications\/modeling-regional-mortality-with-penalized-b-splin\/","title":{"rendered":"Mod\u00e9lisation de la mortalit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale \u00e0 l\u2019aide de B-splines p\u00e9nalis\u00e9es"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Mod\u00e9lisation de la mortalit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale \u00e0 l\u2019aide de B-splines p\u00e9nalis\u00e9es <\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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DetraNote 2026-2<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"DETRAnote_2026-2\"\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Introduction<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Cette DetraNote pr\u00e9sente une nouvelle approche param\u00e9trique afin de mod\u00e9liser la mortalit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale au sein des r\u00e9gions europ\u00e9ennes NUTS-2. Les taux de mortalit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionaux \u00e9tant nettement plus volatils que les agr\u00e9gats nationaux, nous \u00e9tendons le mod\u00e8le de Li et Lee en utilisant des B-splines p\u00e9nalis\u00e9es afin de lisser les logarithmes des taux centraux de mortalit\u00e9 ainsi que les effets marginaux sp\u00e9cifiques \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e2ge des facteurs temporels endog\u00e8nes.<\/p>

Par rapport au cadre de Li et Lee, notre mod\u00e8le pr\u00e9sente plusieurs avantages. Premi\u00e8rement, il permet d\u2019obtenir des courbes de mortalit\u00e9 liss\u00e9es, une caract\u00e9ristique particuli\u00e8rement recherch\u00e9e dans les applications actuarielles. Deuxi\u00e8mement, la param\u00e9trisation limite les degr\u00e9s de libert\u00e9 du mod\u00e8le, ce qui permet une estimation fiable sur des fen\u00eatres temporelles plus courtes. Troisi\u00e8mement, le mod\u00e8le est suffisamment robuste pour la pr\u00e9vision de la mortalit\u00e9 \u00e0 long terme ainsi que pour la valorisation des rentes. Les param\u00e8tres du mod\u00e8le sont estim\u00e9s par maximisation de la log-vraisemblance, et la m\u00e9thodologie est appliqu\u00e9e aux donn\u00e9es de mortalit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionales fran\u00e7aises et belges.<\/p>

Un package Python d\u00e9di\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 dans le cadre de cette analyse et est librement accessible sur GitHub<\/a>.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div>

Mots-cl\u00e9s : <\/span><\/strong>tables de mortalit\u00e9, mod\u00e8le Lee-Carter, mod\u00e8le Li-Lee, mortalit\u00e9 multi-groupe, assurance-vie<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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Secteur : <\/b>Assurance<\/p>

<\/b>Domaine : <\/b>Vie<\/p>

Auteurs : <\/b>I. Belem, D. Hainaut & T. Hames<\/p>

\u00c9diteur :<\/b> Detralytics<\/p>

Date:<\/b> Avril 2026<\/p>

Langue :<\/b> Anglais<\/p>

Pages:<\/b> 26<\/p>

R\u00e9f\u00e9rence :<\/b> Detra Note 2026-2<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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\u00c0 propos des auteurs<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Idrissa Belem<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Fort de deux ann\u00e9es en alternance, Idrissa poss\u00e8de une expertise en assurance non-vie, particuli\u00e8rement en tarification et mod\u00e9lisation CAT. Ses exp\u00e9riences vari\u00e9es lui ont permis d\u2019acqu\u00e9rir une excellente ma\u00eetrise de plusieurs outils et d\u2019enrichir son expertise technique.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Donatien\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Donatien Hainaut<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Donatien Hainaut est Conseiller Scientifique chez Detralytics et Professeur \u00e0 l\u2019UCLouvain (Belgique), o\u00f9 il dirige le Master en Data Science \u00e0 orientation statistique. Auparavant, il a occup\u00e9 plusieurs postes acad\u00e9miques, notamment en tant que Professeur Associ\u00e9 \u00e0 la Rennes School of Business et \u00e0 l\u2019ENSAE \u00e0 Paris. Il poss\u00e8de \u00e9galement une solide exp\u00e9rience en entreprise, ayant travaill\u00e9 comme Risk Officer, Quantitative Analyst et ALM Officer.<\/p>

Actuaire qualifi\u00e9 et titulaire d\u2019un doctorat en Asset and Liability Management, ses recherches actuelles portent sur les m\u00e9canismes de contagion dans les processus stochastiques ainsi que sur les applications des r\u00e9seaux de neurones en assurance.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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Thomas Hames<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Depuis son arriv\u00e9e chez Detralytics en 2019, Thomas a principalement travaill\u00e9 sur des sujets de tarification et de provisionnement en assurance Non-Vie et Automobile de d\u00e9tail, en combinant des m\u00e9thodes classiques avec des approches bas\u00e9es sur le machine learning.<\/p>\n

Par ailleurs, en interne, Thomas participe au d\u00e9veloppement technique et commercial de notre package de micro-provisionnement et assure la supervision des projets de notre Innovation Lab.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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This Detranote introduces a novel parametric framework for modeling regional mortality differences across European NUTS-2. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7369,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[158,133],"tags":[131,144],"class_list":["post-7368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-158","category-publications","tag-detranote","tag-news"],"yoast_head":"\nDetra Note : Modeling regional mortality with penalized B-splines<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This Detranote introduces a novel parametric framework for modeling regional mortality differences across European NUTS-2.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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