{"id":4083,"date":"2020-03-05T12:20:24","date_gmt":"2020-03-05T12:20:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/detralytics.com\/?p=4083"},"modified":"2026-06-22T14:51:23","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T14:51:23","slug":"semi-markov-multistate-individual-loss-reserving-model-in-general-insurance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/detralytics.com\/en\/publications\/semi-markov-multistate-individual-loss-reserving-model-in-general-insurance\/","title":{"rendered":"Semi-markov multistate individual loss reserving model in general insurance"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Semi-markov multistate individual loss reserving model in general insurance<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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DetraNote 2020-1<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Abstract<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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This paper proposes a multistate model with a Semi-Markov dependence structure describing the different stages in the settlement process of individual claims in general insurance. Every trajectory, from reporting to closure is combined with a modeling of individual link ratios to obtain the ultimate cost of each claim. Quantiles and other risk measures can then easily be obtained by simulation. A case study based on individual claim developments in a motor third party liability insurance portfolio illustrates the relevance of the proposed approach.<\/p>

Keywords:<\/span> <\/strong> IBNR, RBNP, RBNS, loss development, technical provisions, solvency calculation, financial reporting.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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Sector: <\/b>Insurance<\/p>

<\/b>Expertise: <\/b>Solvency calculation<\/p>

Authors:<\/b> Carole Bettonville,<\/p>

Robin Van Oirbeek,<\/p>

Michel Denuit &\u00a0 Julien Trufin<\/p>

Publisher:<\/b> Detralytics<\/p>

Date:<\/b> March 2020<\/p>

Language:<\/b> English<\/p>

Pages:<\/b> 29<\/p>

Reference :<\/b> Detra Note 2020-1<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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About the authors<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Carole Bettonville<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Carole is a Freelance Expert at Detralytics. During her various missions, Carole has worked on various fields such as calibration of lapse rate and mortality models and a project as part of the IFRS 17 framework, aiming at identifying a Best Estimate allocation key based on some claims characteristics. Prior to joining Detralytics, Carole worked as an intern at Axa Belgium.\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Michel\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Michel Denuit<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Michel is a Scientific Advisor at Detralytics, as well as a professor in actuarial science at the Universit\u00e9 Catholique de Louvain. He has international experience as a visiting professor, and has promoted many projects in collaboration with the industry. At Detralytics, Michel coaches young talents, provides cutting-edge training, fosters innovation and oversees R&D projects.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Julien\"\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Julien Truffin<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Julien is a Scientific Advisor at Detralytics, as well as a professor in Actuarial Science at the department of mathematics of the Universit\u00e9 Libre de Bruxelles. Julien has experience as a consultant and a strong academic background developed at prominent institutions, including Universit\u00e9 Laval (Canada), UCL, and ULB (Belgium). At Detralytics, Julien coaches young talents, provide cutting-edge training, fosters innovation and oversees R&D projects.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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This paper proposes a multistate model with a Semi-Markov dependence structure describing the different stages in the settlement process of individual claims in general insurance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1682,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[138,133],"tags":[131],"class_list":["post-4083","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-138","category-publications","tag-detranote"],"yoast_head":"\nDetra Note : Semi-markov multistate individual loss reserving model<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This paper proposes a multistate model with a Semi-Markov dependence structure describing the different stages in the settlement process of individual claims in general insurance.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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